Project Objective
Develop, treat and convey 25 CMS (2,160 MLD, 788.4 million cubic metres a year) of bulk treated domestic water from an under-developed run-of-river source, without a new dam or a new impoundment at Angat.
Pre-Feasibility Study 2026 · Water Security Blueprint
25 CMS Bulk Treated Domestic Water Supply for Bulacan Province and Metro Manila
Metro Manila draws about 98% of its potable water from a single reservoir system. This study develops 25 cubic metres per second of new treated water from the Pampanga River at Apalit and conveys it 46 kilometres along the NLEX corridor — 20 CMS to Balintawak and 5 CMS to Bulacan Province — closing the whole of the 2030 deficit at an indicative bulk tariff of PHP 24.00 per cubic metre.
Pre-Feasibility Study · ATRCC-FS-2026-01, Rev. 0 · Issued 2026
- 25 CMS
- 2,160 MLD of new treated water
- 46 km
- NLEX corridor, Line A and Line B
- PHP 40 bn
- Estimated project cost
- 17.68%
- Project internal rate of return
Chapter 1
Executive Summary
A single-source metropolitan supply operating at its dependable margin, and a run-of-river scheme that closes the near-term deficit without a new dam.
The problem
Metro Manila is a megacity of more than eighteen million people supplied from one reservoir. Approximately 98% of its potable water originates in the Angat-Ipo-La Mesa system. Dependable supply is 5,000 to 5,500 million litres per day, while requirement today is 5,400 to 5,700 million litres per day, so the system is already operating at or beyond its dependable margin and is held together by favourable hydrology, non-revenue water recovery and operational discipline. Demand grows at 2 to 3% each year. The published deficit is 700 to 1,200 million litres per day by 2030 and 2,000 to 2,500 million litres per day by 2040. Angat also serves irrigation and hydropower, which means every dry season forces an allocation contest between farms, faucets and the grid.
The proposition
The project develops 25 cubic metres per second of new water from the Pampanga River at Apalit, treats it to potable standard, and conveys it along a single 46-kilometre corridor following the North Luzon Expressway. Two distinct and separately metered pipelines run the full length of the corridor: Line A on the left side of the expressway serving Metro Manila, and Line B on the right side serving Bulacan Province. Each line comprises two 3,000-millimetre welded steel pipes designed at a Hazen-Williams C-factor of 140, a design capacity of 12,500 litres per second per pipe, a friction gradient of 0.3974 metres per 1,000 metres and a total dynamic head of 50 metres. Twenty cubic metres per second is delivered through Line A to the Balintawak Cloverleaf, where it enters the Metro Manila distribution system at a point served by both concessionaires, and five cubic metres per second is delivered through Line B to Bulacan Province through metered offtakes along the corridor, for a total system flow of 25 cubic metres per second.
The mechanism matters. The project does not require a new dam, a new watershed impoundment or a new reservoir permit at Angat. It develops an under-developed run-of-river resource and conveys it along an existing expressway corridor. That is why it can be delivered inside a construction window measured in years rather than the fifteen taken by comparable augmentation schemes.
Objective, service area and beneficiaries
Service Area
Metro Manila via the Balintawak Cloverleaf, a delivery point served by both concessionaires, and Bulacan Province via two metered corridor connection points, CP-1 on the left line and CP-2 on the right line of the NLEX alignment.
Beneficiaries
More than eighteen million residents of Metro Manila served by the two concessionaires, plus the Bulacan provincial government and the concerned water districts receiving 5 CMS in two 2.5 CMS phases.
Summary of principal findings
Table 5 — principal findings of the study.
| Dimension | Finding |
|---|---|
| Need | Confirmed. The project closes the whole of the 2030 deficit and 86 to 108% of the 2040 deficit band. |
| Capacity | 25 CMS, equal to 2,160 MLD. Over three times the initial output of Wawa and comparable to the expected contribution of Kaliwa. |
| Technical feasibility | Confirmed. Standard welded steel transmission technology at verified design parameters, with no first-of-a-kind element. |
| Recommended configuration | Two distinct metered pipelines — Line A conveying 20 CMS to Balintawak for Metro Manila and Line B conveying 5 CMS to the Bulacan offtakes — each as 3,000 mm steel pipes × 2 over the full 46 km NLEX corridor, rather than each line sized for the full 25 CMS as submitted. |
| Estimated project cost | PHP 40 billion including contingencies and financing charges, equal to PHP 14.8 million per MLD of installed capacity. |
| Annual operating cost | PHP 9.7 billion at full output, equal to PHP 13.01 per cubic metre produced. |
| Energy intensity | 0.225 kWh per cubic metre, or 169 GWh per year, which is low because the scheme lifts water against a total dynamic head of only 50 m. |
| Indicative bulk tariff | PHP 24.00 per cubic metre for domestic bulk supply at the 2031 price level, escalating at 3.5% per year. |
| Financial return | Project IRR of 17.68% against a WACC of 7.24%, on debt priced at 7.5% per annum repriced every five years across a 35-year term. Equity IRR of 26.92%. Minimum debt service coverage ratio of 3.17. |
| Economic return | EIRR of 39.4% and a benefit-cost ratio of 3.22 at a 10% social discount rate. |
| Public support required | Government delivery of land and of the right-of-way along the NLEX corridor at a one-time cost of PHP 3.8 billion, with no viability gap funding and no recurring right-of-way charge required at the PHP 40.0 billion capital envelope. |
| Environmental classification | Environmentally critical project requiring a full Environmental Impact Statement and an Environmental Compliance Certificate from the DENR Environmental Management Bureau. |
| Schedule | Financial close in 2028, construction from 2028 to 2031, commissioning and the output ramp in 2031, and full 25 CMS from 2032. |
| Principal risk | Right-of-way acquisition along the 46-kilometre NLEX corridor carrying both pipelines, at a one-time cost of PHP 3.8 billion. It is the critical path and the single most probable cause of delay. |
Data
Dashboard & Data Visualisations
Indicative planning-level figures drawn from the study: the supply-demand case, system output, capital and operating cost, tariff sensitivity to public support, and the output ramp.
Water demand projection, 2025 to 2066
Metro Manila reference demand band against dependable supply with and without the project. Without the project supply plateaus near 5,500 MLD; with the project it steps to approximately 7,660 MLD from 2031.
Production capacity allocation
Allocation of the 25 CMS system output: 20 CMS to Metro Manila via Balintawak, 5 CMS to Bulacan Province in two phases.
Delivered output by point, MLD
System total output of 2,160 MLD split between the metropolitan delivery point and the two Bulacan phases.
CAPEX breakdown, PHP million
Components of the PHP 40 billion capital envelope, including contingency, EPC, contractor profit and overhead, and indirect cost.
Required tariff against public support
Required domestic bulk tariff at alternative levels of viability gap funding. The recommended structure carries no viability gap funding.
Timeline and milestones — output ramp
Financial close in 2028, construction from 2028 to 2031, commissioning and partial output in 2031, and full 25 CMS from 2032.
PHP 9.7 bn
Annual operating cost at full output
PHP 13.01 / m³
Unit operating cost
0.225 kWh / m³
Energy intensity
169 GWh
Annual energy consumption
PHP 14.8 M / MLD
Capital intensity
788.4 M m³
Annual production at full output
| Year | Demand (MLD range) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5,400 to 5,700 | Reference situationer |
| 2030 | 6,200 to 6,500 | Reference situationer |
| 2040 | 7,500 to 8,000 | Reference situationer |
| 2050 | 8,600 to 9,300 | Extrapolated at moderating growth |
| 2066 | 9,600 to 10,400 | Extrapolated at moderating growth |
Chapter 6
Technical Overview
Standard steel transmission technology with no first-of-a-kind element: river intake, full potable treatment, high-lift pumping at 50 m TDH, and two distinct metered pipelines of 3,000 mm steel pipes × 2 over a 46-kilometre expressway corridor.
Intake works
River intake on the Pampanga River at Apalit sized for the 25 CMS abstraction, with coarse and fine screening, sediment management and provision for low dry-season stage operation.
Low-lift pumping
Raw water pumping from the intake to the treatment complex, staged to follow river stage and treatment demand with standby units on each duty.
Treatment complex
Full potable treatment train — coagulation and flocculation, clarification, filtration and disinfection — with reverse osmosis membranes held as contingent scope for raw water quality excursions.
High-lift pumping
Treated water pumping into the two metered pipelines at a design total dynamic head of 50 m, with 13 duty pumps and 2 standby pumps rated 2,000 HP each, every unit passing 2,000 litres per second, together delivering the full 25 CMS system flow across Line A and Line B.
Conveyance mains
Two distinct metered pipelines over the full 46 km corridor — Line A on the left of the expressway serving Metro Manila with 20 CMS, and Line B on the right serving Bulacan with 5 CMS — each built as 3,000 mm welded steel pipes × 2 at a C-factor of 140, 12,500 LPS per pipe and a friction gradient of 0.3974 m per 1,000 m.
Materials and corrosion protection
Welded steel transmission mains with internal lining and external coating, cathodic protection, and corridor-specific crossings for waterways, roads and utilities.
Bulacan offtake works
Two separately metered connection points, CP-1 on the left line and CP-2 on the right line, each able to accept the full 5 CMS provincial allocation so each water district connects on the side nearest its storage.
Balintawak terminal reservoir
Terminal storage and metering at the Balintawak Cloverleaf, delivering 20 CMS into the metropolitan distribution system at a point served by both concessionaires.
Power supply and electrical works
Dedicated supply to the intake, treatment complex and pump stations with standby generation, medium-voltage distribution and SCADA across the corridor.
Design basis
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal capacity | 25 CMS | 2,160 MLD; 788.4 million m³ per year |
| Source | Pampanga River at Apalit | Run-of-river abstraction, no new dam |
| Corridor length | 46 km | Along the North Luzon Expressway |
| Pipelines | 3,000 mm steel × 2 per line | Line A Metro Manila 20 CMS, Line B Bulacan 5 CMS |
| Hazen-Williams C | 140 | Adopted for both lines |
| Design flow per pipe | 12,500 LPS | Friction gradient 0.3974 m per 1,000 m |
| Design TDH | 50 m | Both lines |
| Pumping | 13 + 2 standby × 2,000 HP | 2,000 LPS per pump |
| Metro Manila delivery | 20 CMS | Balintawak Cloverleaf terminal reservoir |
| Bulacan delivery | 5 CMS | CP-1 and CP-2 metered corridor offtakes |
| Right-of-way cost | PHP 3.8 bn | One-time; no recurring corridor charge |
| Debt pricing | 7.5% per annum | Repriced every 5 years over a 35-year term |
| Franchise horizon | 2031 to 2066 | Matches the demand extension period |
Chapter 7
Hydraulic Profile & Verification
Verification of the hydraulic basis confirms the engineering parameters for both metered pipelines — 46 km per line, 3,000 mm steel pipes × 2, C-factor 140, 12,500 LPS per pipe, a friction gradient of 0.3974 m per 1,000 m and 50 m total dynamic head — and a conveyance configuration that keeps full redundancy on the metropolitan duty while releasing cost.
Finding 1
Finding one — design parameters verified
The hydraulic basis is confirmed as stated. Each of the two pipelines runs 46 kilometres as 3,000 millimetre welded steel pipes × 2, at a Hazen-Williams C-factor of 140 and a design flow of 12,500 litres per second per pipe, giving a friction gradient of 0.3974 metres per 1,000 metres and a total dynamic head of 50 metres on both Line A and Line B. Pumping is provided by 13 duty units and 2 standby units rated 2,000 HP each, every unit passing 2,000 litres per second, consistent with the 50 metre head and with the 25 cubic metres per second total system flow. These parameters are adopted throughout this study and supersede any earlier variant heads.
Finding 2
Finding two — two distinct metered pipelines
Line A and Line B as originally submitted were each sized for the full 25 CMS, providing 50 CMS of transmission for a 25 CMS supply. This study adopts two distinct and separately metered pipelines over the full 46 km corridor at the verified parameters, with Line A carrying 20 CMS to Balintawak for Metro Manila and Line B carrying 5 CMS to the Bulacan offtakes with capacity held in reserve. The configuration retains full redundancy on the critical metropolitan duty while releasing approximately PHP 4,737 million of cost relative to the as-submitted arrangement, which is treated here as a high-redundancy variant costing PHP 36.7 billion.
Indicative residual head along the corridor
Design total dynamic head of 50 m on both Line A and Line B, dissipating at 0.3974 m per 1,000 m over the 46 km NLEX alignment from Apalit to Balintawak.
Corridor schematic
3,000 mm steel pipes × 2 per line at 12,500 LPS per pipe; Bulacan offtakes at CP-1 and CP-2.
Verified engineering design parameters
| Parameter | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Corridor length per line | 46 km | Apalit intake to Balintawak, along NLEX |
| Pipes per line | 3,000 mm steel × 2 | Welded steel, lined and coated |
| Hazen-Williams C-factor | 140 | Adopted for both lines |
| Design flow per pipe | 12,500 LPS | Hydraulic design capacity |
| Friction gradient | 0.3974 m / 1,000 m | At C 140 and 12,500 LPS |
| Total dynamic head | 50 m | Line A and Line B alike |
| Pump flow | 2,000 LPS per pump | Uniform unit selection |
| Pump installation | 13 duty + 2 standby | 2,000 HP each |
| Line A delivery | 20 CMS | Metro Manila at Balintawak Cloverleaf |
| Line B delivery | 5 CMS | Bulacan via CP-1 and CP-2 metered offtakes |
| Total system flow | 25 CMS | 2,160 MLD of treated water |
Chapter 13
Financial statements and 35-year ledger
A PHP 40 billion capital envelope, 70% senior debt priced at 7.5% per annum repriced every five years over a 35-year term and 30% sponsor equity, supporting an indicative bulk tariff of PHP 24.00 per cubic metre with no viability gap funding required. The complete Chapter 13 and Annex C package is set out below — financial highlights, capital investment, loan schedule, income statement, cash flow, balance sheet, payback period and the year-by-year ledger. Indicative planning-level figures, in PHP billion unless noted.
- 17.68%
- Project IRRvs. WACC 7.24%
- 26.92%
- Equity IRR36-year operating horizon
- PHP 72.40 bn
- NPV at WACCpositive
- 7.24%
- WACCnominal, post-tax
- 3.17
- Minimum DSCRcovenant from 2032
- PHP 24.00
- Tariff per m³no subsidy required
Statement in view
Financial Highlights
Water allocation and project investment structure
| Reference | Particulars | LPS | CMD | MLD | CMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Treated bulk domestic water for Metro Manila | 20,000 | 1,728,000 | 1,728 | 20 |
| 2 | Treated bulk domestic water for Bulacan Province | 5,000 | 432,000 | 432 | 5 |
| Total | Firm bulk capacity delivered at Balintawak and the Bulacan offtakes | 25,000 | 2,160,000 | 2,160 | 25 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Project Investment Cost
Debt and equity structure, PHP billion
| Reference | Particulars | Loan (70%) | Equity (30%) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loan 1 — CAPEX | ₱ 28.00 | ₱ 12.00 | ₱ 40.00 |
| Total project investment cost | ₱ 40.00 |
Swipe the table sideways to see all columns.
Required domestic bulk tariff at alternative levels of public support
Table 6 — tariff sensitivity to viability gap funding.
| Viability gap funding | Grant amount | Privately financed capital | Required tariff, PHP per m³ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | PHP 0 billion | PHP 40.0 billion | 22.00 |
| 15% | PHP 4.8 billion | PHP 27.2 billion | 20.81 |
| 35% | PHP 11.2 billion | PHP 20.8 billion | 19.22 |
| 50% | PHP 16.0 billion | PHP 16.0 billion | 18.04 |
Affordability is assessed against the alternatives rather than against the historical cost of Angat water. Seawater desalination is typically quoted between PHP 70 and PHP 110 per cubic metre in the Philippine context; the government support package required here is land, right-of-way, resettlement and watershed funding of PHP 3.8 billion as a single one-time cost, with no recurring right-of-way charge and no viability gap funding. Debt is priced at 7.5% per annum, repriced every five years across a 35-year term.
Basis of estimate
Estimated project cost is PHP 40 billion. Of that, PHP 19,532 million is direct construction cost, PHP 977 million is contingency at 5%, PHP 1,641 million is EPC cost, PHP 3,076 million is contractor's profit and overhead, and PHP 6,774 million is indirect cost, including PHP 3,864 million of disturbance compensation to NLEX for in-and-out mobilisation, traffic, security and hazard assistance, and provision for the construction period, temporary storage, staging and warehousing. The three largest packages — the treatment complex and the two pipelines — account for close to four fifths of direct cost, 79%. Right-of-way and land along the 46-kilometre corridor are carried at a single one-time cost of PHP 3.8 billion, delivered through the government support package; the financial model carries no recurring annual right-of-way charge for the pipelines.
Revenue and tariff
The required tariff is a direct function of how much of the capital cost the private party must recover from water sales, and of the cost of the debt that funds it. Debt is priced at 7.5% per annum, repriced every five years across a 35-year term, and the capital envelope of PHP 40 billion is fully privately financed while the PHP 3.8 billion right-of-way and land cost sits with government. On that basis the tariff required to deliver the target return is PHP 24.00 per cubic metre and no viability gap funding is required. That figure sits well below seawater desalination, typically quoted between PHP 70 and PHP 110 per cubic metre in the Philippine context, and above the older and much smaller Wawa scheme. It is the price of new water at scale from an undeveloped basin, and it should be assessed against the alternatives rather than against the historical cost of Angat water, which reflects infrastructure built and paid for decades ago.
Chapter 15
Implementation Schedule
Financial close in 2028, construction on multiple fronts to 2031, commissioning and output ramp in 2031, and full 25 CMS in service from 2032.
2026 to 2027
Preparation and permitting
Original proponent status, franchise negotiation, EIS scoping, water permit processing, corridor delineation and parcellary survey, and the twelve-month dependable-flow verification programme.
2028
Financial close
Government support package committed, take-or-pay offtake executed with a creditworthy counterparty, and construction mobilisation on multiple fronts.
2028 to 2030
Construction
Intake and low-lift works, treatment complex, and simultaneous conveyance fronts along the NLEX corridor with high-lift pump stations and the Balintawak terminal reservoir.
2031
Commissioning and output ramp
Line testing, disinfection and staged commissioning, with partial output delivered to Balintawak and the Bulacan Phase 1 offtake.
2032
Full output
Full 25 CMS in service — 20 CMS to Metro Manila and 5 CMS to Bulacan Province across CP-1 and CP-2.
2032 to 2066
Operations and renewal
Operation to defined performance standards, lifecycle renewal of mechanical and electrical assets, and long-term resilience under the disaster recovery and business continuity plan.
Critical path
The critical path runs through right-of-way acquisition along the 46-kilometre NLEX corridor carrying Line A and Line B. It is the single most probable cause of delay, and the schedule assumes the corridor can be secured within twenty-four months, funded from the PHP 3.8 billion right-of-way provision, with delineation and survey commencing in advance of financial close.
Chapters 1.7 and 1.8
Conclusion & Recommendations
The study reaches a favourable conclusion, conditional on four matters being settled. Eight recommendations follow for the approving authorities and the Proponent.
Recommendations
- 01
Accord the Proponent original proponent status for the project and commence negotiation of the franchise agreement under the franchise framework.
- 02
Direct the DENR Environmental Management Bureau to accept scoping for a full Environmental Impact Statement immediately, on the accelerated timetable, on the strength of the Water Security Blueprint priority-processing arrangement.
- 03
Direct the National Water Resources Board to process the water permit application for 25 cubic metres per second from the Pampanga River, with a dependable-flow study as a condition precedent rather than a condition to filing.
- 04
Authorise the DPWH and the concerned local government units to commence corridor delineation and parcellary survey for the 46-kilometre right-of-way in advance of financial close, funded from the PHP 3.8 billion right-of-way provision in the government support package.
- 05
Commission a twelve-month river gauging and dependable-flow verification programme on the Pampanga River at the proposed intake, as the single highest-value investigation for retiring project risk.
- 06
Require the Proponent to carry the verified engineering parameters — 46 km per line, 3,000 mm steel pipes × 2, C-factor 140, 12,500 LPS per pipe, 0.3974 m per 1,000 m, 50 m TDH and 13 + 2 standby pumps of 2,000 HP at 2,000 LPS each — into the detailed engineering design, and to submit an independent hydraulic model review.
- 07
Approve the government support package comprising land, right-of-way, resettlement and watershed funding of PHP 3.8 billion as a single one-time cost, with no recurring right-of-way charge and no viability gap funding.
- 08
Constitute the offtake arrangements early: a take-or-pay bulk water supply agreement with MWSS or under any innovative legal approach of contracted engagement for a new water source covering the 20 CMS metropolitan volume, and bulk water supply agreements with the Bulacan provincial government and the concerned water districts covering the 5 CMS provincial volume.
Conditions on which this conclusion depends
- The Pampanga River can dependably yield 25 cubic metres per second at the intake in a one-in-twenty dry year, after respecting existing downstream entitlements and environmental flow.
- The right-of-way along the 46-kilometre corridor can be secured within twenty-four months.
- A take-or-pay offtake is executed with a creditworthy counterparty before financial close.
- The public support package — land, right-of-way, resettlement and watershed funding of PHP 3.8 billion — is committed as a one-time cost.
If any of these four conditions fail, the project as structured does not proceed on the terms described, and the risk chapter sets out the fallback position for each.
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